Evidence ledger · operation reported, expansion continues

AWS New Carlisle: headline promises appear met. Independent reconciliation is next.

Indiana’s 2024 baseline was $11 billion and at least 1,000 jobs. AWS-linked 2026 accounts report $13.8 billion invested and roughly 1,000–1,056 full-time staff. Those are meaningful positive signals—but not yet a substitute for county compliance filings, payroll definitions, tax receipts or metered water.

Operator: Amazon Web ServicesPlace: St. Joseph County, IndianaProject Rainier siteLast verified: 10 September 2026
Company-reported delivery

Current assessment

The original investment and employment promises are supported by later AWS-linked reporting at or above the baseline. Confidence stops short of independently observed because the underlying annual county compliance filing, investment definition and payroll records have not been reconciled.

$11B2024 investment baselineIEDC company plan
$13.8B2026 investment reportedAWS-linked account; scope needs reconciliation
1,000+2024 jobs baselineAnnounced new jobs
1,056full-time AWS employees reportedChamber-published; filing not yet obtained
18M gal/yrwater at full buildoutCompany estimate, not measured use

Promised → reported → verified

Company-reported

Capital investment

$11 billion planned in 2024; $13.8 billion reported in 2026.

The later figure exceeds the baseline, but scope matters: “invested” may not equal audited eligible capital or capital placed in service. Independent county and state records remain the verification step.

Baseline: IEDC, 25 Apr 2024. Update: AWS-authored Chamber opinion and Chamber project page, 2026.
Company-reported

Permanent employment

At least 1,000 announced; 1,056 full-time AWS employees later reported.

AWS’s own account says “nearly 1,000 operations staff,” while the Chamber page says 1,056 full-time employees. Both point toward delivery, but the definition, location allocation and contractor treatment need the underlying CF-1 or payroll evidence.

St. Joseph County’s general abatement program requires annual CF-1 compliance filings; the project-specific filing has not been retrieved.
Partially delivered

Buildout

18 buildings reported vertical; expansion continues.

This supports substantial construction progress and operating activity. It does not establish completion of every planned building or the decade-long campus buildout.

Projected

Taxes

More than $1 billion in property taxes over 35 years.

The Chamber attributes this estimate to AWS. It is a future projection, not taxes already paid. Annual gross taxes, abatements and net local receipts still need separate reconciliation.

Projected

Water

Approximately 18 million gallons a year at full buildout.

An AWS-authored article describes outside-air cooling for roughly 98% of the year. The water figure is a full-buildout estimate—not permitted withdrawal, current metered consumption or potable-water use.

The same company account reports $114M in water/sewer infrastructure and a 100M-gallon annual replenishment project; recipient and performance records are not yet reconciled.
Performance-based

State incentives

50-year sales-tax exemption plus up to $98.3 million in listed credits and grants.

IEDC described the support as performance-based. Maximum authorized value is not the same as benefits earned, claimed or received. Those amounts remain unknown.

Company-reported

Community support and rates

More than $1.5 million in grants; ratepayer-protection and bill-reduction claims.

The grants are reported by AWS and need recipient-level reconciliation. A causal claim that the project reduced other customers’ bills requires utility commission evidence; a utility rate change alone would not prove causation.

Evidence timeline

Baseline announced

Indiana and AWS announce $11 billion, at least 1,000 jobs and a performance-based incentive package.

Project Rainier operating update

Amazon identifies New Carlisle as part of its operating multi-site AI compute cluster. Full campus completion is not claimed.

AWS-linked delivery account published

AWS reports $13.8 billion invested, nearly 1,000 operations staff and 18 buildings vertical. The Chamber’s project page reports 1,056 full-time AWS employees.

Compliance evidence should follow

St. Joseph County says abatement recipients file annual CF-1 compliance forms. The project-specific filings are the next independent check.

Source packet

Neutral readingThis may become a strong positive community-outcome case. The honest status today is “company-reported as delivered,” not “independently audited.” Publishing that distinction protects the record from both reflexive skepticism and promotional overclaiming.